The southern border and immigration have emerged as fiercely contested issues as the Long Island congressional special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. George Santos starts to heat up.
Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip and Democratic ex-Rep. Tom Suozzi held dueling news conferences and TV ads on the issue last week as the Feb. 13 election edges closer.
Democratic groups have so far dramatically outspent their GOP rivals, raising questions about how hard Republicans are fighting to hold on to the swing seat on the North Shore and a slice of Queens.
Republicans may be counting on the vaunted GOP Nassau County machine to win the day, especially because they have enjoyed a remarkable string of election wins since the 2022 midterms.
The infamous Santos himself is gone and mostly out of sight as the race to fill his old seat takes shape in the middle of winter.
Here are five things to know about the tricky fight for the seat once held by Santos.
Border battle rages on Long Island
Northeast Queens is about 2,000 miles from the southern border with Mexico, but both Suozzi and Pilip agree that the migrant crisis is hitting New Yorkers where they live.
The rival candidates held dueling news conferences just minutes apart at the former Creedmoor Psychiatric Center, which is being used to house asylum seekers bused to New York from Texas.
“Neighbors are scared, concerned, and angry — and they should be,” Pilip said. “First and foremost: protect our borders.”
Suozzi showed up right after his rival finished and tried to steal her thunder as she left without acknowledging him.
The three-time former lawmaker insisted he would be the best pick to fix the border crisis.
“People are really concerned [and] I’ve proposed concrete ideas about what needs to be done,” Suozzi said, accusing Pilip of being a sycophant of former President Donald Trump. “She has not.”
In a new ad entitled “Fence,” Suozzi portrays himself as a typical suburban moderate not afraid to step on toes in both parties. He touted a proposed compromise he once spearheaded with ex-Rep. Pete King (R-L.I.) to fund much tighter border security in exchange for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
Neophyte Pilip takes on insider Suozzi
A legal immigrant from Israel with roots in Ethiopia, Pilip boasts an inspiring life story that she says led her to hold Republican ideals.
The mom of seven won two straight impressive victories in a Democratic-leaning district in the Nassau County Legislature.
But she is not well-known across the district, especially in the slice of far northeast Queens that makes up close to 20% of it.
Pilip has so far limited her public appearances, giving only a few interviews, and did not agree to an interview request from the Daily News.
She insists she’s strongly pro-life but opposes a nationwide six-week abortion ban. She unsurprisingly stresses her record in the Israeli Defense Forces, which will likely play well in the district’s large Jewish communities.
Suozzi, on the other hand, is a familiar figure across the district. He is running hard on his record as a moderate Democratic problem solver who has occasionally crossed swords with party bosses.
He says his centrist views on the economy and the southern border as well as unapologetic support for Israel are a needed counterweight to progressives in the Democratic Party.
The 61-year-old, who left Congress to mount an ill-fated 2022 run for governor, says he supports President Biden’s economic policies, but would push for tax breaks like restoring the so-called SALT deduction for state and local taxes.
Democrats build big spending edge in ad wars
The fight for the swing seat held by Santos was once seen as an all-out fight in which both parties would spend freely to grab the suburban bellwether district.
After all, Republicans hold only a narrow six-seat edge in the House, a margin that could dip to five if Suozzi wins.
During the fight over expelling Santos from Congress, both parties suggested they would use the special election to spotlight their campaigns for control of Congress in the fall.
After all, the suburban district voted for Biden by about 8 points in 2020, reflecting the lurch away from Trump in better-educated affluent areas nationwide. But the district has swung to the right like the rest of Long Island in elections since then.
“This may very well be a chance to see how some of the strategies and tactics, especially messaging, will play in other swing suburbs around the country that will decide who gets the gavel in Congress,” said Lawrence Levy, a Hofstra University political scientist who studies suburban trends.
So far it’s looking like a relatively one-sided fight.
Suozzi and the Democrats have outspent Pilip and Republicans by about 5 to 1.
The only poll of the race so far found Suozzi leading with 45% versus 42% for Pilip, an edge that grew to 51% to 37% among likely voters.
The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate the district as a tossup in the fall. But those predictions don’t apply to the special election, which is likely to be a low-turnout affair given the unusual timing.
Is redistricting fight dimming GOP hopes to keep the seat?
The relatively lackluster Republican spending has some political pundits scratching their heads.
It’s possible that the impending redistricting effort in New York has dissuaded Republican donors from pouring big bucks into the race, they say.
The special election will be held using the district lines that were drawn ahead of Santos’ upset win in 2022. But Democrats will likely be in a position to tweak the district to their liking before the fall general election.
Some analysts warn against underestimating the GOP’s potent organization, which has delivered big wins for the party for three straight years now, driven by anger over issues like perceived rising crime.
“The Republican strategy here seems to be highly dependent on the Nassau County GOP machine … and the favorable political trends and issue environment for the party on Long Island,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with Inside Elections.
Where’s George?
The ousted lawmaker made two cameo appearances last week — one in court and one at a Trump victory rally in New Hampshire.
As he left a brief pretrial hearing in his federal criminal case, Santos told reporters he’s too busy living his life and fighting fraud and campaign finance charges to even vote in the special election.
Hours later he popped up at Trump’s celebration following the former president’s win in the New Hampshire Republican primary.
Pilip and Republicans are probably breathing a sigh of relief that Santos did not seek to insert himself into the special election.
Red-faced Long Island GOP leaders lined up against Santos after he admitted that he lied about virtually his entire life story.
Santos became the first lawmaker since the Civil War to be expelled from the House of Representatives without first being convicted of a crime when about half of the Republican lawmakers joined all Democrats in voting to oust him.
